The Earth system is a very complex and dynamical one basing on various feedbacks. This makes predictions and risk analysis even of very strong (sometime extreme) events as floods, landslides, heatwaves, earthquakes etc. a challenging task. Here I will introduce a recently developed approach via complex networks mainly to analyze strong climate events. It is shown how this new method can reveal new insights into the underlying mechanisms which enables us to construct substantially better predictions, in particular of strong rainfall in Bolivia or of the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon. (Please find the full abstract below.)

Workshop with Jürgen Kurths:

• In addition to the ESD lecture, Jürgen will participate in a workshop on "Non-linear and complex dynamics" in the afternoon of the same day, Monday November 11 at 13:00-15:00 in Haus H, VR1&2. Everyone is invited to attend. The workshop aims at bringing together and discussing ongoing research activities in different sections / working groups. Please email guentner@gfz-potsdam.de if you would like to give a short presentation in the workshop - contributions are very welcome.

The Earth Surface Dynamics seminar series aims to bring together the broad range of researchers on Telegrafenberg looking at Earth surface processes, e.g., hydrology, earth surface geochemistry, geobiology, geochemical/carbon cycling, geomorphology, etc. once a month. The goal for these talks is to be broad and accessible and deal with big, global topics, so that non-experts and specialists alike can find them enlightening.