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Earth Surface Dynamics (ESD) online seminar "Including Societal Adaptation Dynamics in Risk Assessment Models" by Dr. Jeroen Aerts (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)


Date: Wednesday, 3rd March 2021 at 10:30 am

Venue: Online via Zoom. Details below. 

Host: Prof. Dr. Andreas Güntner, GFZ & Uni Potsdam

We are pleased to announce the next Earth Surface Dynamics (ESD) online seminar on "Including Societal Adaptation Dynamics in Risk Assessment Models" by Dr. Jeroen Aerts (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam), on Wednesday, 3rd of March 2021, at 10:30. Please see details given below and in the attached poster.

Best regards on behalf of the ESD organizing committee,
Andreas Güntner



This presentation discusses recent advancements in natural hazard risk assessment models. Most risk models use scenario-based methods to simulate changes in hazard and exposure. However, they assume that vulnerability remains constant across time and space, as though individuals and other stakeholders do not adapt, learn from hazard experiences, or prepare for an event based on risk information or early warning. Therefore, vulnerability in risk assessment is often addressed as an external variable. This presentation shows, however, that there is a constant dynamic between the natural system (hydrology, climate, geology) and society, and how people adapt to hazards over time, and thus how behavior influences vulnerability, and vice versa. The perspective of integrating societal and behavioural dynamics with quantitative risk assessment methods has sparked novel socio-hydrological research linking methods from the domain of behavioural sciences to natural sciences modelling.

Dr. Jeroen Aerts is the head of the Water and Climate Risk department at IVM-VU University Amsterdam. With an M.Sc. in physical geography and a Ph.D. in hydrology and operations research, Dr. Aerts has been active in water- and climate-related risk for almost 30 years. He pioneered modeling approaches coupling physical climate–water models with human behavioral methods, integrating multidisciplinary methods from hydrology and (behavioral) economics. Dr. Aerts co-initiated the first large-scale climate adaptation research program in the Netherlands (Klimaat voor Ruimte, 110 million euros). He was the scientific coordinator of the Connecting Delta Cities initiative under the Clinton C40 global cities network and a member of the evaluation committee of the National Flood Insurance Program of the U.S.

Join Zoom Meeting
Meeting-ID: 671 8298 0962
Code: 65054244


The Earth Surface Dynamics seminar series aims to bring together the broad range of researchers on Telegrafenberg looking at Earth surface processes, e.g., hydrology, earth surface geochemistry, geobiology, geochemical/carbon cycling, geomorphology, etc. roughly once a month. The goal for these talks is to be broad and accessible and deal with big, global topics, so that non-experts and specialists alike can find them enlightening. If you would like to take part in the organizing of this seminar or would like to suggest speakers, please get in touch.