Developing agent based model to predict shrinkage and expansion of slum in Lagos Megacity

Collaborators: Prof. Dr. Tobia Lakes (HU) and Dr. Marion Stellmes (FU)

Project Outline

The negativity attributed to slums development shows the need to reduce its growth, especially in the global south, where the future population growth is expected to take place, which currently houses more than 50% of the city’s population. Lagos, a megacity in Nigeria falls under the aforementioned categories,  as over 65% of the population resides in slum and may likely increase as there is correlation between slum and population growth in the city. However, there are limited studies on slum pattern in Lagos, especially in the application of land use models to study slum dynamics in the city. This study aims to contribute by developing an agent based model to predict shrinkage and expansion of slums in Lagos.

Story map on slum management: Include Me, Don’t Force Me Out


Badmos, O. S., Callo-Concha, D., Agbola, B., Rienow, A., Badmos, B., Greve, K., & Jürgens, C. (2020). Determinants of residential location choices by slum dwellers in Lagos megacity. Cities, 98, 102589.

Ewere Evelyn, Anyokwu and Olabisi, S. Badmos (2019). Land tenure Security, Soil Water Conservation Adoption and Farm Household Welfare in South-Western Nigeria. In Proceedings of the International Conference on sustainable development, Sept. 24-25, 2019 Columbia University, New York, USA.

Badmos, O., Rienow, A., Callo-Concha, D., Greve, K., & Jürgens, C. (2019). Simulating Slum growth in Lagos: An integration of rule based and empirical based model. Computers,Environment and Urban Systems 77.

Badmos K. Biola, Grace B. Villamor, Sampson K. Agodzo, Samuel N. Odai & Olabisi S. Badmos Evaluating an agricultural land-use change adaptation strategy in a semi-arid region of Ghana (submitted)

Badmos, O. S., Rienow, A., Callo-Concha, D., Greve, K., & Jürgens, C. (2018). Urban Development in West Africa—Monitoring and Intensity Analysis of Slum Growth in Lagos: Linking Pattern and Process. Remote Sensing, 10(7), 1044.

Badmos, B.K., Agodzo, S.K Villamor, G.B., Odai, S.N. Olabisi S. Badmos (2018). Local level impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors on agriculture and agricultural land-use dynamic of in rural northern Ghana. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 39(2), 178-191

Badmos, B., Sawyerr, H., Salako, G., Oyewumi, A., Adedotun, A., Olalubi, O., & Badmos, O. (2018). Gender Variation on the Perception of Climate Change Impact on Human Health in Moba Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria. Journal of Health and Environmental Research, 4(1), 1-9.