Project 4: Kinematics of seismic and aseismic deformation processes

Kinematic observations in the pre-, co- and postseismic phase will be processed and used for a combined inversion of the co-seismic slip distribution on the interface and the patterns of afterslip. In particular time series of continuous GPS stations will be used to constrain the post-seismic deformation process in order to discriminate between seismic and aseismic strain release. Finally, comparing pre-, co- and postseismic kinematics and locking patterns we will explore the kinematic predictions of various hypotheses related to the permanence of asperities and barriers, to fault healing and evolution of the mechanical state, and to the mechanisms controlling locked and creeping domains.

Figure 1: Comparing the pattern of locking of the plate interface prior to the 2010 Maule earthquake (left) with the earthquake slip distribution (right) suggests that coseismic stress release and interseismic stress buildup were highly correlated and, in consequence, that maximum coseismic slip during a future event (but not its point in time!) can be anticipated using modern observation techniques. This finding has been the first empirical confirmation of "Reid's Elastic Rebound Theory" (Reid, 1910) in a subduction megathrust setting (Moreno et al., 2010). Locking pattern has been derived by analysis of surface defomation during the decade preceding the event using GPS inversion. Earthquake slip distribution has been derived by the USGS using inversion of teleseismic data and published online within two weeks of the event.

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Lange, D., Tilmann, F., Barrientos, S. E., Contreras-Reyes, E., Methe, P., Moreno, M., Heit, B., Agurto, H., Bernard, P., Vilotte, J.-P., Beck, S. (2012):

Aftershock Seismicity of the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake Rupture Zone,

Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 317-318C, pp. 413-425, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2011.11.034.

Moreno, M., Rosenau, M., Oncken, O.:
2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone

Nature, Vol 467, issue 7312, pp 198-202; DOI: 10.1038/nature09349